Global climatic change has been in the limelight for decades now. And yet scientists still cannot agree on the nature of the ongoing processes. Are we in an age of warming or cooling? What is the engine of natural cataclysms that occur ever so often today? And how should we make forecasts for the future? As Yuri Izrael, head of the federal service involved with hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring and full member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, sees it, the all-important problem now is to look into the possibilities of stabilizing the climate. He aired his view in an interview for the Moscow evening daily Vecher-nyaya Moskva in November 2010.

It is an open secret now: the earth has seen many climatic changes, with warming and cooling spells following one after another. In the dim and distant past, in the age of dinosaurs (ca. 230 to 65 years ago)*, the globe's surface temperature was about ten degrees Celsius higher; that's when vital mineral deposits like coal came into being. The latest Ice Age came to an end around 10,000 years ago, while the contemporary temperature maximum is known to have established itself but 5,000 years later. Ever since, the global temperature has been fluctuating now and then for a variety of causes, natural and anthropogenic alike. It has seen ups and downs, sure. If

* See: Yu. Avsyuk et al., " Did Dinosaurs Die Out Suddenly?", Science in Russia, No. 3, 2002; V. Alifanov, A. Averyanov, "Time of Dinosaurs", Science in Russia, No. 5, 2003.--Ed.

we take these past 100 years, the warming trend is quite obvious.

The impact of human activities on the global climate is certainly beyond doubt*, Acad. Izrael went on to say. But he did not agree with the climatic weapon idea now on the anvil. The anomalously hot summer of 2010, he says, was due to natural geophysical processes that kept the heatwave in European Russia for a long stretch of time. In point of fact, no country has power enough to exert even the slightest effect on the climate, for an eruption of just one volcano, not the largest one, is comparable to an explosion of a hundred nuclear bombs.

Acad. Izrael explained why he is so skeptical about the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. In his opinion, this international document has political strings attached to it and is not justified economically. As much as a trillion dollars has to be earmarked in 100 years to bring the carbon dioxide content down to a desired level and thus offset the hothouse effect. Also, developed countries will be at a disadvantage because of the quotas issue and prognostication snags bearing on economic growth rates. What we can do now is to stabilize the present climate as it is by using time-tested technologies. This matter has been brought up at the topmost level in this country time and again, and it was discussed in Tokyo two years ago by

* See: Yu. Izrael, "Threat of Climatic Catastrophe?", Science in Russia, No. 4. 2003.--Ed.

presidents of thirteen science academies, where Acad. Izrael made a report on a commission from RAS President Yuri Osipov.

One such conservative technology is well known. It involves the finest aerosols obtained from ordinary sulfur and oil industry wastes. These substances are quite good for screening out solar radiation. As shown by tentative estimates made in 2005, a mere 1 to 2 percent change in its reflection would help conserve the present-day climate or even bring it back to what it was 50 years ago. This does not mean climate control but amounts to restoring the customary and comfortable living conditions.

In the coming 100 years or so the global temperature may rise by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees centigrade, which would usher in a chain of great disasters: Greenland's ice shield would melt away, and the level of the world ocean would go up by 8 meters. A permafrost "meltdown" would also take place. There would be no catastrophic consequences insofar as Russia and her people are concerned. Yet this would mean a real tragedy, say, for the people of Bangla Desh. Even in northern Russia one can see symptoms of a meltdown of the surface layers of soil, an event involving some damage to homes and pipelines. This phenomenon, however, has certain positive aftereffects: people in Yakutia (Sakha) and other regions of the Far North have started growing heat-loving crops, something that was out of the question not so long ago. Yet, overall, the balance is negative.

Now to the practical side of the matter. The Typhoon Association of the Russian Weather Service is conducting tests at Obninsk south of Moscow to check on the effect of aerosols. Sulfur particles are dispersed in the troposphere from aircraft at altitudes to 3,000 meters. Thereafter one registers changes, if any, on the ground. This is a low-cost and ecologically friendly technology: the amount of particulates contained in regular industrial waste products is five thousand times as high. This way the global climate could be stabilized for a stretch of 5 or 10 years, while the total bill will be a fraction of one envisaged by the Kyoto Protocol.

N. Leskova, Climate Could Be Kept Under Control. Vechernyaya Moskva evening daily, 11 Nov. 2010

Prepared by Yekaterina PANTAKOVA