Singling out from the whole set of the problems of Central European region only those that are geographically oriented along the East-West line is, to some extent, risky. With such an approach a lot of other important aspects are not taken into consideration. Relations of the states of South-North line of the Black Sea - Baltic Sea dimension are among them. Importance of relations between and with the countries of this region will be growing in connection with the perspective of the Baltic states joining West European organisations and possible further strengthening of cooperation of Ukraine with the countries of Western Europe.

Three-Lateral Relations Context

At the same time, to single out for the purpose of analysis only one direction - East-West - is a very good idea. In this triangle - Poland, Belarus and Russia - all challenges and dangers, as well as opportunities and chances, - are reflected in the most concentrated manner. One may say that to a certain degree the way how the problems of this region will be resolved, depends not only the future of the East European region itself, but even that of the whole continent.

With all that, future here should be understood like middle-term distance perspective - for fifteen or twenty years. In more distant future the themes of our today's arguments and discussions will not be of any significance. Extraordinary dynamic development of information, communication and technological processes and the growing in connection with that gap between leading developed countries of the Northern hemisphere and the rest of the world will bring about such a big problems that their solution will be possible only through joint efforts.

The involvement of Russia and Belarus in solution of future problems is obvious. It is obvious irrespectively of the fact that now in Russia and Belarus there are some who find it feasible to set up an alliance of states on the basis of ethnic commonalty or outlived ideology in defiance to the growing community of democratic states. Of course, it is possible to modify the Union of Russia and Belarus into a Slavic alliance or commonwealth based on what those who mastermind such alliances as 'the best achievements of the Soviet communism'. However, such efforts will not be a reasonable alternative to integration of Russia and Belarus into the process of globalisation. Any alliance of Russia with Iran or China, as well as any other exotic unions, is unrealistic and shortsighted.

Any alternative to comprehensive involvement of Russia and Belarus in the global process will result in that they will be pushed aside to the sidelines of the mainstream of world's development. In this respect, the two countries have no other choice. Therefore, the vector of their development is largely pre-determined.

Shaping Trends

Relations within the triangle of Poland, Belarus and Russia do not determine the future of Europe as a whole or even future of Central and Eastern Europe. As to their importance, they could be ranked third, following at least two other tendencies. Today the latter could be regarded as most important for the future development.

The first is global in its in scale process of the third information revolution of post- industrial age. One of the consequences of this revolution is a relative decrease in the level of state involvement both into the life of society and international relations. It is reflected, for instance, in the never seen before concentration of capitals: 200 world's major companies possess more assets than170 non-OECD countries.

The second trend, which downgrade the relations in the above-mentioned triangle to the third position, is the all-European process, with its major components represented by the qualitative and quantitative development of the EU and by NATO- Russia relations. It is exactly these components that largely determine the climate on our continent.

However, all these do not underrate the importance of relations among Poland, Russia and Belarus. Within this triangle certain forms of dealing with problems can

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be found, or, on the contrary, already emerged problems can become more acute. The chances of integration of these countries into world economic and informational space will depend, to a large degree, on their behavior.

Choices for Belarus

Whatever paradoxical it may sound, certain parallels can be drawn between today's Belarus and the situation in Poland in1989. At present, Belarus has the same challenges in character, if not in contents, as the then Poland had. The country has many choices, and none of these is a pre-determined one.

It is true that now the most feasible seems the concept of union between Russia and Belarus and their interaction in finding their place in the world. At the same time it is far from sure that Belarus has no chances for integration into European community, even with her current economic and political situation. These chances are fewer if Belarus will be acting together with Russia rather than independently. Taken into consideration her history, capabilities and even, perhaps, mentality of the people, Belarus, situated in the geographical centre of Europe, has no barriers that she cannot overcome on her way to Europe. The country has no serious domestic problems, save a few political ones that would be obstacles to integration into Europe.

Being in Poland, it is hard to see real aspirations of the Belarusian state. This is because most high-ranking officials make statements that can be mutually exclusive. On the one hand, Belarusian president says that the peoples of Russia and Belarus make one people, and this pre-determines their imminent unification. On the other hand, speaking last September, he was stressing the importance of the western vector of Belarusian policy and was referring to the traditions of Great Duchy of Lithuania.

Belarus could become a territory that could be defined in political terms as a zone of reduced tension between Russia and NATO. In economic terms, she could become a zone of special interaction, or, in other words, to become that very binding unit which pulls together all Europe and generates signals for all sorts of cooperation in all areas.

There are no clearly visible bright prospects for any unification or even integration between Russia and Belarus. Although the Russian language is really dominating in Belarus, all other factors like religious structure of the society, historical memory, and closeness to the countries of the Baltic, Poland, absence of major domestic problems all these make Belarus very different from Russia and her internal problems.

However, the Belarusian foreign policy is in fact a foreign policy of a Belarusian socialist republic. It is implemented in a way as if it were a foreign policy of some larger entity, not independently. This is reflected even in the speeches of President A. Lukashenko. He admires the fact that Belarus has lived for last 60 years in one state entity with Russia, forgetting that Belarusian statehood had had more years than Belarus's incorporation into the Russian Empire. Belarus had lived as part of Rzeczpospolita for more than three hundred years. During those years Belarus was mainly not a territory for confrontation between Rzeczpospolita and Moscow State, but a separate duchy of the former.

In this context, the expansion of the European Union opens for Belarusian foreign policy opportunities that can be hardly overestimated.

The Importance of Foreign Policy of Poland With Regard to Belarus

If we put aside loud declarations, so far, that is for the last 10 years of Belarusian independence, neither the US nor European Union has put forward a program of actions for Belarus (or, by the way, Ukraine). Poland, as a neighbouring state, cannot but pay attention to the Belarusian state. It cannot act like some time ago Queen Victoria of Great Britain did: after a conflict with Bolivia she order simply delete the name of the country off the map and ignore this part of the map. The imperative for Polish foreign policy is not only measures and actions to strengthen the sovereignty of Belarus, but also contribution to the drafting of concepts within the EU, which ultimately could become part of the EU foreign policy.

This is not simply about noble aspiration, this is about Polish national interest. Two objectives can be met through such a programme and such a policy. First is the creation of conditions for the existence of independent democratic state east of Bug River, that state that could become a strategic partner of Poland. This reflects Polish interests. The second objective is that working on the first Poland makes her role more important for those structures to which she belongs or aspires to join.

There is no single comprehensive solution here. First, all European community, Russia included, should be persuaded that the existence of Belarus as an independent democratic state is acceptable for all. Second, a concept should be worked out for gradual involvement of Belarus into the existing mechanisms of cooperation. For instance, Russia and Ukraine have had special treaties with NATO; Belarus has no treaty of the kind. Already existing multilateral mechanisms, like one of the Central European initiatives, CEFTA, should be filled with a new content. With this in mind, why not this new content has as part of it forms of cooperation with Belarus and Ukraine?

And, finally, third, this should be a patient policy of small steps, a policy made on the basis of overall concept. It should include all areas of possible

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cooperation in economic as well as cultural and humanitarian areas. By the way, the experience of cooperation that some Polish and Belarusian ministries and agencies have had is very positive. Our Border Service and Ministry of Interior officials are positive about this cooperation. Based on the experience of transition of Central European countries a general program could be worked out for Belarus. If implemented successfully, such a program could be used for Russia.

Democratic institutions as a factor for successful economic development

Today credits and loans from international financial organisations that have been made available to Belarus are about USD 150 mn. This is by al standards a very insignificant sum. On the other hand, one should realise that without domestic political reforms neither Western countries nor international financial organisations will become involved in the development of Belarus.

In this regard, one cannot agree to the idea that human rights and system of government of the state have very little to do with the issues of security. Domestic stability of the state is a cornerstone for understanding and calculating future development of both the country and the region.

It is hard to understand concern of the Belarusian authorities with regard to liberalisation of the internal political process. According to the polls, even free elections pose no threat to the rule of A. Lukashenko. After legitimisation of his regime he will have a real chance for expansion of opportunities for cooperation with the countries of Western Europe, which would not be reduced to mere declarations.

For Poland, it is not intentional to raise issues of domestic system of government of the state and respect for human rights. This motivated by own experience of the Poles, who saw that without solution to these problems it is impossible to have a positive economic development in the country. For Poland, like for Belarus and Russia, the urgent is the problem of modernisation of the national economy. Here we can see that Poland, with her intellectual potential far from being higher than that of her eastern neighbours and in some respects like infrastructure previously lagging behind Belarus, now is better off in her efforts to modernise her economy. To illustrate this one has to look at the following figures: Poland's GDP now is twice as big as that of Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine combined.

Survey made in Belarus show that this model of development is attractive. Citizens of Belarus rank Poland third after the US and Germany in the list of countries that are most attractive to them. Russia is ranked 12th in this list. Normal contacts that we have during day-to-day business and personal communication indicate that normal could be relations in the political area. This is a matter of political will of the state. Should declarations on the openness to the West were followed by real deeds, there would be positive effect for Belarus and this effect would be immediate.

* Zdislav Rachinsky , Advisor of the Chief of People's Security Bureau, Administration of the President of Poland, Warsaw.

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