Dmitry PHILIPPOVYKH
Professor Ph D (History)
Eintracht das Kleine mehrt, Zwietracht das Grosse verheert (In union the smallest thrive, in discord the biggest are destroyed)
An old German saying
In the run-up to the early elections to the German Bundestag set for September 18, 2005, there were more than enough forecasts that "either opposition leader Angela Merkel would head a new government or Gerhard Schroder would retain his post as the German Chancellor". Yet Alexander Rahr, Program Director of the Koerber Analytical Center for Russian and CIS Affairs, an institution of the German Council on Foreign Relations, chose a more preferable approach to the matter, focusing in his analytical report on one key issue: "What are basically the future areas of common
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nterest in German-Russian relations, and what are the instruments that may be used in addressing common problems for both countries?". Let us follow the lead, the only difference being that we do not believe that prospects of Russian-German cooperation depend upon results of the September 2005 elections.
Russian-German relations in the recent past have been fairly successful, which allows the countries to face future with optimism. On the international arena, Germany, being a member of a range of international organizations, has in recent years traditionally lobbied Russia's interests in them. Thus Gerhard Schroder backed Russia up in the G8, in negotiations between Russia and the World Trade Organization, and in the Paris Club.
Politically, the German Chancellor and the Russian President have always strived to draw the two countries closer. In the past five years, the scope of Russia's high-level contacts with Germany has been unmatched. These included numerous meetings, government consultations, and the "St. Petersburg dialogue" initiated by Gerhard Schroder and Vladimir Putin in order to bring the elites of both countries together.
The strong and mutually advantageous Russian-German relations have had a tangible positive effect. Both countries have benefitted from the dynamically growing commercial and economic exchange and establishment of firm scientific and cultural bonds. Germany acts as a kind of propulsion source for Europe's policy towards Russia.
Angela Merkel, the CDU leader, has also time and again stressed in her election statements that "close relations with Russia, if the Christian Democrats come to power, will be of special importance for the FRG".
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It is obvious that "close relations" between the FRG and Russian Federation will be maintained, in the first place, in the commercial and economic sphere.
First of all, Germany has been the biggest Russian trade partner for the past decade and a half. An indicator of successful relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and the Russian Federation is the growing commodity turnover that increased 2.5 times in the last ten years. According to German sources, in 2004 the commodity turnover went up 22.7%, reaching Euro 31.3 billion. Presently, there are over 3.5 thousand companies with a 100% German or mixed Russian-German capital working in Russia, in addition to over a thousand representative offices of German companies. Russian business has also taken root in Germany - Russian investments in the country's economy (in particular, the oil and gas industry) currently amount to USD 1.5 billion.
The fundamental truth is that Russia's activity in the German energy market is not going to be affected by the Bundestag election results. In the years to come, the FRG will be interested in Russian oil, oil products and natural gas supplies, therefore Russia will have a real opportunity to enter into a range of favorable bilateral contracts.
The main projects in this field are implemented by Gazprom and German E. On Concern. In particular, there is discussion of the promising North European gas pipeline (NEG) project, which will mean establishing a fundamentally new route for Russian gas exports to Europe. Its implementation will make it possible to diversify gas export flows, and directly connect the gas transportation nets of Russia and the Baltics with the European gas grid. The gas pipeline will run across the floor of the Baltic Sea from Vyborg to the city of Graifswald on the German coast
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(Mecklenburg state). The distinctive feature of NEG is there are no transit states along its route, which reduces sovereign risks and the costs of Russian gas transportation, simultaneously enhancing reliability of gas export supplies.
The gas pipeline construction is undoubtedly a mutually beneficial project since it will help expanding gas supplies to West Europe and Nordic countries, as well as to consumers in Russia's northwestern territories, including Kaliningrad Region.
The Russian side is also interested in expanding activities in the gas distribution market of Western and Eastern Europe. Negotiations between Gazprom and E. On on this subject are currently in progress.
At the same time, mutual German-Russian interests are not limited to trade in energy resources. Industrial cooperation, as well as partnership in the field of information and high technologies, have a large potential that should be employed and developed. First of all, it concerns cooperation in such major fields as biotechnologies for health care industry, new materials, nanotechnologies and nanomaterials, industrial technologies for automotive and aviation industries.
In the aerospace sphere, the countries are actively cooperating in the framework of the "Soyuz-Kourou" project (launching European satellites by Russian launch vehicles from the Kourou Space Center, French Guiana). In this mutually beneficial cooperation, the FRG acts as a major investor, encouraging participation of other countries - members of the European Space Agency (ESA) in implementation of the project which is going to provide for competitive advantages of Russian and European manufacturers in space. Russian launch vehicles will take part in
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one of the ESA's grandiose projects - delivery of a rover to Mars. In June 2011, it is planned to launch a Russian "Soyuz-Frigate" rocket from the Kourou Space Center, which will take the European craft out to space.
In December 2004, an agreement was signed in Hamburg between the Scientific Industrial Corporation "Irkut" and Airbus company (a subsidiary enterprise of the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company - EADS) for manufacture of component parts at Russian plants.
The Russian-German program for large-scale cooperation in the aerospace field, in particular with EADS company, has great prospects. Under this program, a Unified Aviation Consortium is being set up in Russia, which will soon become a major player in the world's aircraft manufacturing market.
According to Rainer Hertrich, EADS co-Chief Executive Officer, the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company plans to increase cooperation with Russia from Euro 15 million in 2003 to Euro 150 million in 2005. A firm assurance in favorable prospects for airspace cooperation between the two countries was also expressed by German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder who stated that "future prospects for realization of large-scale aerospace programs may be related to participation of new countries. I believe that Russia with its potential in aerospace technologies may take a deserving place in EADS international programs".
In addition to that, there exist good prospects for increasing Russian exports of ferrous and non-ferrous metals. The current situation in the platinum-group and rear-earth metals market is favorable, too. According to forecasts, the German market will show a stable demand for products of Russian wood processing
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industry. A special mention should be made of Russian furniture manufacturers who actively export their products to the FRG.
Significant reserves for intensifying cooperation between Russia and Germany lie in the activities of small and medium enterprises. According to German Gref, RF Minister of Economic Development and Trade, future Russian-German relations should be developed in such a way "as to allow thousands of small and medium enterprises to interpenetrate their businesses".
Presently, Russia has good prerequisites for further strengthening its status as a major German business partner. Russia possesses inexpensive resources which may make it attractive for development of labor-intensive industries. And, of course, Russia with its army of 150 million consumers represents an enormous market for German products that are well-reputed all around the globe.
Secondly, Germany is the biggest investor in terms of direct investments into Russia. The accumulated German investments in Russian economy total USD 9.3 billion. Numerous joint projects have been implemented in Russia, and a significant number of Russian-German investment projects are being negotiated.
In accumulated investments in Russian economy, Germany occupies the first place among large investor states (USD 10,560 million, or 24.5% of overall accumulated foreign investments). The biggest German investments in Russia over the past two years were made in trade and public catering (about 60% of the total).
Thirdly, bilateral economic cooperation is greatly enhanced by the continuing dialogue between Russia and Germany on topical aspects of interaction in various fields - in the first place, activities of the intergovernmental Russian-German Strategic Working Group. It was set up on June 15, 2000, in accordance with a top-
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level agreement, to deal with issues in trade, economic and financial spheres. At present, the Strategic Working Group successfully performs many functions that have been traditionally vested in bilateral intergovernmental commissions. Its main task is to address day-to-day problems arising in trade and economic relationships between our countries - in particular, to eliminate obstacles in the sphere of investment cooperation, elaborate fundamental, strategic proposals concerning the main fields of mutually beneficial economic partnership. In April 2002, political leaders of Russia and Germany decided, taking into consideration the results of the Strategic Working Group's activities that they should be conducted on a continuous basis.
Fourthly, cooperation between Russian and German regions has notably expanded in recent years. As in the past, federal states Baden-Wurttemberg, Bavaria, Lower Saxony, Northern Rhine-Westphalia, as well as the cities of Berlin, Munich and Hamburg, are the most active participants in contacts with Russian regions. In Russia, the regions that actively promote their products in the German market include Altai Territory, Vladimir, Kaliningrad, Nizhny Novgorod, Novosibirsk, Saratov, Sverdlovsk and Tyumen Regions, the Republics of Bashkortostan, Komi, Sakha (Yakutia) and Tatarstan, the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also positively evaluates the prospects for future Russian-German trade and economic cooperation. In June 2005, addressing leading representatives of German business establishment in St. Petersburg, he said: "Together we have laid a solid basis for business cooperation between our countries and economies. And we have all opportunities for expanding the scope of our cooperation. "
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Stable relations have been established between Russia and Germany in the sphere of scientific research and education.
One of the decisive factors having a positive effect on development of Russian-German scientific cooperation is, undoubtedly, the strong potential of highly qualified specialists. It is generally recognized that Russia possesses competitive technologies in a range of fields, which naturally makes it an attractive scientific research center for German specialists. Currently, there exist 550 Russian-German university partnerships, with around 10 thousand professors and students participating in exchange programs between research and educational institutes of Russia and Germany.
In February 2005, Andrei Fursenko, Russian Minister of Education and Science, and his German counterpart Edelgard Bulmahn, Federal Minister of Education and Research, signed an agreement that is supposed to grant the status of strategic partnership to bilateral cooperation in the field of education and scientific research.
Edelgard Bulmahn pointed out that the strategic partnership would involve a purpose-oriented support for German-Russian projects launched by higher educational institutions, research and commercial organizations, as well as exchange programs for young researchers and cooperation between them. According to the German Federal Minister of Education and Research, the already existing scientific cooperation with Russia represents an extremely favorable starting point for strengthening bilateral cooperation in major prospective fields. Germany will annually allocate no less than Euro 40 million for joint Russian-German projects in the sphere of science and education.
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Strategic scientific cooperation between Russia and Germany covers establishment of a contractual base for the already existing cooperation in the field of laser technologies, as well as expansion of joint programs in the field of sea and polar research, information and communications technologies (including Internet), high-speed data processing techniques, and mathematic modeling of various processes.
In other words, Russia and Germany are brought together by their common economic, trade, research and educational interests. Russia can provide Germany with raw materials, resources and a military-strategic potential, as well as a vast geographical base for development. This means availability of a strong potential for continued fruitful cooperation.
It would seem that even the cooperation fields outlined above prove that our countries can face the future with optimism. However, there is yet another very important circumstance that would hardly need proof in the form of logical arguments. It is rather an аrgumentum ad hominem, as ancient Romans would call it - an argument appealing to human emotions, rather than based on objective facts.
Currently, there are over three million Russian-speaking people living in Germany. Only in 2004, the number of "new Germans" from Russia rose by 59%, and these people are far from indifferent to the future of Russian-German relations.
In this regard, the "Russky Berlin" (Russian Berlin) newspaper (no. 34, 2005) wrote, "What do we, new German citizens, need in view of our problems and requirements? First of all, we need "our own" representatives in the Bundestag, who will show interest in our integration and social problems. With "our own" deputies, we can
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influence the process of passing laws that would reflect our interests. At first, these may be politicians who do not belong to the Russian-speaking community, but let them be "our own"!.. On September 18, 2005, Germany will elect its parliament - Bundestag - after which a new government will be formed. Let's not waste our chance to influence the composition of the parliament! If all of us, the new German citizens, cast our votes, our three million voices may accomplish a lot. "
German mass media, including the "Deutsche Welle" radio station, have been conducting regular blitz-polls of German citizens throughout the election campaign. One of the polls was dedicated to the problem that is very critical for the current political situation in the country, "Will German policy towards Russia be altered following the early Bundestag elections?" 41.9% out of the 2404 polled said that German policy towards Russia would remain intact since Russia is a strategic partner of the FRG. 26.4% of the respondents regard the potential victory of the opposition as a real threat to Russian-German relations. 31.7% could give no answer. Thus, a majority of the German population does not expect the government to change its course away from cooperation with Russia.
Historical experience clearly indicates that mutually beneficial partnership has invariably done good to both Russia and Germany, whereas confrontation between the two countries resulted in monstrous upheavals in both Europe and the world.
Hopefully, German politicians are well aware of the old wise saying of their people: "two hard millstones do not produce good flour" (Zwei harte Steine mahlen selten reine).
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