Paradoxically, the importance of the civilizational approach is increasing in connection with globalization. The" answer "to the" challenge " of globalization is the desire of communities and individuals to assert their special identity - national, ethnic, confessional — that is, in general, related to the "culture" and "civilization"factor.

The analysis of not only demographic growth trends, but also the prospects of migration pressure is very relevant in the work of A.V. Akimov and A. I. Yakovlev. Diagrams showing the imbalance between civilizations in terms of population size, availability of arable land, energy and water resources also indicate possible conflicts and tensions in relations between civilizations in the case of the most undesirable scenario of "struggle for resources".

Keywords: civilizational approach, forecasts, globalization, transnational corporations, energy resources, demographic forecast, international migration.

The monograph of A. V. Akimov and A. I. Yakovlev "Civilizations in the XXI century: Problems and prospects of development", published in 2012, is an important event in Russian scientific life. After providing detailed digital assessments of various options for demographic development, energy supply, and food production, the authors performed work that large research teams with a full staff of support staff could do together. The authors made their forecasts, perfectly guided by the main publications of recent years on forecasts-domestic, among which we can distinguish the IMEMO RAS forecast and the forecast of the team led by A. A. Akaev, A.V. Korotaev, G. G. Malinetsky, S. Yu. Malkov [Strategic forecast..., 2011; Projects..., 2011], and foreign [Mir ..., 2009, Meadows et al., 2012]. The book " Projects and risks of the future. Concepts, models, tools and forecasts " edited by A. A. Akaev and A. V. Korotaev contains demographic forecast, forecasts of energy consumption and GDP dynamics for 2100 [Proekty..., 2011]. Most of the "competing" forecasts are made for shorter periods, but what happens in the next two or three decades will largely determine the fate of the entire century.

The book provides an in-depth analysis of a number of issues that characterize the current situation, but determine the future.

The authors base their forecast on the division of the world into civilizations. The analysis is carried out "within the framework of the concept of international relations formulated by S. Huntington", ... "this is a convenient level of data aggregation for visual representation of the impact of demographic growth on the world system" [Akimov, 2013, p. 6]. At the same time, the authors emphasize that the philosophical analysis of the concept of "civilization" is not included in the tasks of their work [Akimov, Yakovlev, 2012, p.16].

It was the civilizational approach that caused the most objections among the participants of the discussion, both in general [Alaev, 2013] and in terms of the composition of the selected civilizations [Kosolapov, 2013; Fituni, 2013]. In many respects, this criticism is addressed not so much to Akimov and Yakovlev as to S. Huntington, whose division of the world into civilizations was taken as a basis by them.

I will express some thoughts that arose after reading the book by Akimov-Yakovlev and their articles. In my opinion, we should distinguish between civilizations as something rigid, fairly homogeneous and tied to a certain territory, and civilizational

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overall approach. The forecast was made based on the fact that each civilization is tied to a certain territory, and in most cases, when calculating civilizations, they simply "overlap" with regions. But the authors themselves say that today alien civilizational components are widely present, for example, in Europe ("East in the West"), considerable attention is paid to the problems and prospects of international migration.

If the boundaries of civilizations raise certain objections, then the civilizational approach seems to be quite fruitful for considering a number of problems. The analysis can also be carried out from the standpoint of the globalization and civilizational approach [Naumkin, 2011, p. 28]. Paradoxically, the importance of the civilizational approach increases in connection with globalization, one of the most important facets of which is the planetary spread of the Western consumption model. However, by intensifying the interaction of countries, peoples, and individuals, and introducing a uniform consumer society on the surface, globalization increases the desire of communities and individuals to assert their special identity - national, ethnic, and confessional, i.e., in general, it refers to the "culture" and "civilization"factor. A paradox arises: globalization faces the greatest rejection precisely in terms of civilization.

Akimov and Yakovlev note that material culture demonstrates "the unification of consumption due to the fact that the modern way of life in the city involves the use of the same household appliances and life support technologies, and the globalization and standardization of jobs in the modern sector" [Akimov and Yakovlev, 2012, p.119]. They write that there is an "import of such Western achievements in material culture as the automobile and the cell phone" [Akimov and Yakovlev, 2012, p.70]. Important indicators for calculating the KOF Social Globalization Index, which is published annually by the Swiss Economic Institute along with the general globalization Index, economic and political globalization indices, are the number of McDonalds and IKEA stores in relation to the population [http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/]. Western consumption standards are spreading all over the world.

In the countries of the East, a middle class is already growing, striving and able to maintain Western standards of consumption. Ruchir Sharma, head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, the largest U.S. investment firm, says that Asia's share of the global middle class rose from 20% in 1980 to 60% by 2010, and the number of Asian millionaires in 2010 reached 3 million, the same number as in the United States. Europe. "China currently accounts for 10% of global GDP and 20% of luxury goods sales, while just over 1% of millionaires buy 32% of famous Swiss watches there every year" [Sharma, 2013, p.313, 314].

Moreover, consumer standards in the current model are replicated "from top to bottom" - thanks to advertising, glossy magazines, television and movies. Goods - in full accordance with the theory of the "leisure class" by Torsten Veblen (1984) - are transformed from simple consumer goods into symbols of social status. Each social stratum strives, to the best of its financial capabilities, to reproduce the consumption model of the stratum at a higher level of the social hierarchy. Poor segments of the population, under the conditions of massive exposure to the demonstration effect, strive to imitate these standards (Ellochka the Cannibal and Madame Vanderbilt from "Twelve Chairs"). The UN report "Transnational Corporations in Advertising" in 1979 gave such a heartbreaking example:" a peasant carries a stone painted to look like a transistor radio; he does not have the money to buy a real receiver, but owning such a fake, he feels attached to Western standards of consumption " [Transnational Corporations..., 1979, p. 35].

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However, the current trend within the framework of globalization to level everyone according to a single model, to spread Western consumption standards, also causes a reverse reaction - the desire to distance oneself from the Western, American model (because globalization is often perceived precisely as Westernization, Americanization).

Hence the increased emphasis on the differences of civilizations, their "collision", the desire to show their distance from the fundamental values of other civilizations. Interesting in this regard are the arguments of the Japanese anthropologist Yunzo Kawada about the fundamental differences between Western and Japanese civilizations. In a report at the international conference "What is globalization?", in November 2001 in Paris, Y. Kavada stated that

"Japanese culture does not have the "paradigm of Being" characteristic of Western culture, according to which a person conquers Nature, which results in the ruthless exploitation of natural resources and environmental pollution. In accordance with Shintoism, Buddhism, people represent only a small part of the universe, along with other living beings, hence the Japanese culture's more careful attitude to Nature."

Yu finds fundamental differences between Japanese and Western culture. Kavada and in relation to work. Western labor culture presupposes, according to Yu. Kavada,

"the use of a variety of specialized tools, each of which has specific functions, and the maximum use of energy sources, in order to save people's labor costs and achieve maximum results. Japanese labor culture is characterized, firstly, by the use of simpler universal tools, in which the result is more dependent on the skill of the employee; secondly, the desire not to save labor costs in order to achieve better results."

Moreover, Kavada (although he is not a linguist, but a specialist in social anthropology) claims that in European Romance languages, the verb itself to work (for example, the French travailler), "comes from the Latin word tripaliare,' to torture with a tripalium, three pillars to which the criminal was tied'". In Japanese, according to him, "there are many terms to show the employee's satisfaction with work, to show sympathy for his fatigue from the effort spent". Yu. Kawada speaks of a similar attitude to work and tools in Japanese culture and in the culture of artisans in West Africa [Quelle mondialization?, 2002, p. 217-218].

Speaking about the fundamental difference between Islamic and Western values, University of Tunis Professor Mohamed Talbi at the same conference"What is Globalization?" He recalled the myth of Prometheus and its influence on the entire philosophy of development of Western society. "Promethean logic" suggests that " man is the master of nature, that he must take what he needs by force. According to Islam, there was no need to steal fire from people, hence a fundamentally different attitude to Nature, to the surrounding world." From the Promethean logic, a bridge is being built "to the violent invasion of Western civilization into the life of Eastern society", starting with the crusades and ending with modern globalization, "to the imposition of alien values, including by force of arms or through the use of financial levers". M. Talbi emphasizes that there is also " a connection between violent globalization /westernization and international terrorism, which in some cases represents an extreme "response" to the challenge of globalization " [Quelle mondialization?, 2002, p. 219-220].

The desire to assert one's identity, distancing oneself from others, is also manifested in the framework of a single — in Huntington, Akimov, Yakovlev-Western civilization. Panelist N. A. Kosolapov highlights the Anglo-Saxon civilization, the origins of which he sees in Ancient Rome. L. L. Fituni opposes each other

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Northern and Southern Europe. And the French sociologist E. Todd in the monograph "After the Empire. Pax Americana-the beginning of the end " devotes an entire section to criticizing the concept of S. Huntington and contrasts American civilization with European civilization. Speaking about their approach to civilizations, Akimov and Yakovlev point out:

"The acceptance or non-acceptance of certain values, i.e. the development of a person's worldview and behavioral norms, is determined both by social psychology and deep civilizational foundations. Ethical and behavioral norms, attitudes towards life and death, attitudes towards women and children, attitudes towards wealth and work, the ideal of beauty - all these are separate manifestations of a complex of interrelated customs, norms of behavior, views and ideals, social, religious and cultural values that are passed down from generation to generation. what we call "Tradition"" [Akimov, Yakovlev, 2012, p. 21].

It is precisely in these "deep foundations" - attitudes to religion, to life and death, to the role of women, to work and wealth-that Todd finds significant differences between American and Western European civilizations. His statements are very interesting, although not indisputable. He's writing:

"America is full of religious phraseology, half of its residents say they attend a Sunday religious service, but in reality only a quarter attend it. Europe, on the other hand, is an area of agnosticism, where religious expressions are close to zero. However, in the European Union countries, the biblical commandment "thou shalt not kill"is better applied in practice. The death penalty has been abolished here, and the murder rate is very low, about 1 per 100 thousand inhabitants. The execution of convicts is a daily routine in the United States, where the murder rate after a slight decline is from 6 to 7 per 100 thousand inhabitants. ... The cruelty of America seems interesting in the movies, but it turns out to be unbearable when America exports it in the form of military and diplomatic actions. The sea of cultural differences between Europeans and Americans is almost endless, but the anthropologist is obliged to emphasize the status of the American woman, authoritarian and threatening, which causes the same anxiety among European men as the image of the all - powerful Arab man-among European women" (Todd, 2004, pp. 200-201).

E. Todd emphasizes "what is fundamental and most profound in the difference between American and European concepts: the process of forming societies itself is a level of analysis where it is no longer possible to separate mores from economics and to which the concept of civilization better corresponds" [Todd, 2004, p.201]. Moreover, E. Todd contrasts American civilization with all the civilizations of the Old World, Western and Eastern, in relation to labor, wealth, and economic balance.

"European societies were formed as a result of the hard work of many generations of poor peasants. They have suffered for centuries from the warlike customs of their ruling classes. Only later did they discover wealth and peace. You can say the same about Japan and most of the Old World countries. All these societies retain in a kind of genetic code an instinctive understanding of the essence of the category of economic equilibrium." "American society, by contrast, is a product of recent colonization, very successful... it developed over the course of three centuries due to the immigration of an already literate population to a land that has huge resources, is very fertile, and is fertile for the development of agriculture... And America probably didn't realize that its success is the result of a process of exploiting and irrevocably spending wealth that it didn't create" (Todd, 2004, p.201).

According to E. Todd, " a good understanding by Europeans, Japanese, or any Eurasian people of the need for ecological balance or balanced trade exchange is the result of a long history of the peasantry. Since the Middle Ages, Europeans, Japanese, Chinese, and Indians, for example, have struggled against the depletion of the soil, making sure that natural resources are limited by the facts of their lives. In the United States, a population freed from the past has discovered seemingly inexhaustible nature. Economics there has ceased to be a discipline that studies the optimal use of limited resources, and has become a religion of dynamism, which does not take into account the concept of equilibrium... America always

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it developed by depleting its land, squandering its oil, and looking abroad for the people it needed to function" [Todd, 2004, p. 202].

However, at the end of his critique, Todd makes a reservation that "when critically analyzing current trends, one should not forget about the positive qualities of America" and "it is necessary that it once again become itself, a democratic, liberal and productive country" [Todd, 2004, pp. 228, 229].

But it is not only the differences that exist, but also the fact that in the course of the triumphant globalization, these differences are being made public as loudly as possible. In the context of globalization, the desire of communities and individuals to establish a special "civilizational" identity does not decrease, but increases. "The global Village has become a reality in terms of technology, but not socially, culturally and politically." "We thought of a global village, but we got the Tower of Babel," writes French sociologist Dominique Volton. He believes that the development of new information and communication technologies in many cases complicates communication within society, makes society more divided. He asks the question: "How can we peacefully coexist with each other in a world where everyone sees everything and learns about everything, and where differences have become more visible and more difficult to agree on?" [Volton, 2011, p. 7].

The civilizational approach in the work of Akimov and Yakovlev, as it seems to me, is not an end in itself, but a tool. In today's homogenizing and globalizing world, civilizations do not appear to be completely homogeneous. On one territory in one country there are segments related to other civilizations. In Russia, for many centuries, there has been a population that professes Islam. By the way, the same E. Todd writes about the special tolerance of Russian civilization in relation to non-national and non-religious components, about its "universalism". "Russians, in contrast to Americans, do not have an approach that separates full - fledged nations from others: Indians, Negroes or Arabs. ...after the conquest of Siberia, they did not exterminate their "Indians" - ...Buryats, Tungus, Yakuts... the preservation of which explains the modern complex structure of the Russian Federation " [Todd, 2004, p. 178]. In Western European society, we can talk about the presence of a significant immigration component.

Speaking about the problem of immigration, V. V. Naumkin identifies three perspectives-differentialism, convergence, and hybridization [Naumkin, 2011, p. 28]. In the first half of the twentieth century, and even up to the end of the "thirty glorious years" (les trente glorieuses, from the end of World War II to the beginning of the energy crisis in 1973), the model of assimilation was quite successfully implemented in France through institutions such as secular schools, the army, and trade unions.

Paradoxically, an important factor preventing the assimilation of immigrants today is the information and communication revolution and, more broadly, the development of mass communication media, including such "traditional" ones as television (although the traditional media is rather tom-toms, whose rhythm changes depending on the transmitted information). Immigrants in their communications are less and less focused on their environment (if they do not live in an immigrant quarter - a kind of ghetto). Contacts within the diaspora, contacts with relatives and friends in the homeland are maintained via Skype, via e-mail. You can use a satellite to watch not local TV programs, but television from a distant homeland. There is no assimilation of immigrants, no cultural convergence, but rather hybridization - the emergence of bizarre combinations of West and East, Africa and Europe. The same thing happens with the propertied strata of Afro-Asian countries. A successful Senegalese notary brings guests in a Mercedes to the villa of one of his wives. Watching a movie on the latest model of TV, he treats themchabuden (stewed fish with vegetables and rice), which is served in one large basin and which is usually eaten with your hands...

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Will the quantitative and qualitative growth of the Muslim diaspora in the West, and above all in Europe, lead to cultural and civilizational hybridization, which can prevent ominous predictions about the clash of civilizations? [Naumkin, 2011, p. 40, 52]. Or will these ominous predictions come true, and tendencies toward differentialism will prevail? This question (as will be shown below) is one of the key ones for the prospects of the XXI century.

Akimov and Yakovlev's work seems to me to be very relevant for Russia in analyzing not only demographic growth trends, but also the prospects for migration pressure. Figure 2.2.7 shows the potential of cross-border migration pressure on Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus from not only Kazakhstan and Central Asia, but also Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey, which can be assessed from the point of view of highly undesirable prospects in the case of a struggle for resources, including water and arable land... [Akimov and Yakovlev, 2012, pp. 72-73]. If we take into account the demographic potential of other countries located in close proximity to the borders of the Russian Federation, which is not shown in this diagram, the picture may look even more dramatic. Other diagrams that show the imbalance between civilizations in terms of population, availability of arable land, energy and water resources can also indicate possible conflicts and tensions. The authors do not make alarmist statements, but the diagrams are quite eloquent, especially when it comes to Orthodox civilization, especially Russia.

And this is another important argument in favor of the civilizational approach — in the most unfavorable scenario of interaction, wars for resources in the XXI century are most likely to take place between different civilizations.

Of great interest is the section where detailed scenarios of the development of individual civilizations and four variants of their interaction are given.

It is possible that some scenarios of interaction between civilizations will be implemented simultaneously with others. For example, the scenario "Convergence of Civilizations" [Akimov, Yakovlev, 2012, pp. 119-120]. Much was said about the convergence of capitalism and socialism in the 1960s and 1980s, but after the collapse of the socialist system and the collapse of the USSR, no convergence took place, and the former socialist countries were drawn into the market space of world capitalism. The "Convergence of Civilizations" scenario, in my opinion, is most likely feasible with the simultaneous implementation of the "West retains its leadership" scenario. Leadership not in terms of population or resource availability, but in terms of the development of the scientific, technical and financial spheres - the "Triumph of Technology" and "Triumph of Rentiers" scenarios, and the latter provides for the relocation of industrial production to countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.

As one of the factors that will contribute to the implementation of the convergence scenario, the paper refers to "joint mutually beneficial activities of states and private companies (primarily TNCs), which will help to equalize the levels of economic development" [Akimov, Yakovlev, 2012, p.151]. However, at the same time, the authors themselves admit:

"Transnational corporations, which are the engine of globalization, can ensure economic convergence of countries, leveling both the sphere of production and consumption. However, their ability to erase civilizational differences is small, as shown by the examples of the Persian Gulf countries, which have the opportunity to import all modern goods due to oil exports, and the countries of East Asia, where the development of modern production has not led to the westernization of society" [Akimov, Yakovlev, 2012, pp. 150-151].

If Western standards of consumption really spread all over the world, including thanks to electronic media, then the location of production facilities does not cover all countries. Foreign direct investment (FDI), the mainstay of TNCs ' foreign operations, is extremely unevenly distributed. In 2008, 90% balan-

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The largest share of FDI in the world accounted for 40 countries and territories, including China and Hong Kong, Singapore, India, Thailand, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey. Russia is among the top forty receiving countries for FDI, while South Africa and Nigeria are among the African countries [Tsvetkova, 2011, p. 56]. Non-operational forms of organizing international production (various types of contracts, without the participation of TNCs in the capital of enterprises)are also widely used [Tsvetkova, 2012], but they are used primarily in the countries that are the leading recipients of FDI, to which no more than two dozen countries and territories can be added, including Taiwan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. True, there are countries that have successfully integrated into globalization, but are not included in the lists of the largest recipients of FDI-Israel, the small population of the Gulf states with a high per capita GDP. But most countries remain aloof from international business capital flows and integration processes, and the prospects for convergence are unlikely for them.

Consumption standards are spreading across the planet. But to buy goods of prestigious brands, you need income that can be earned in production. Or get it in other ways. And then there are really paradoxical solutions. Guinea-Bissau, which until recently had no mineral resources (bauxite deposits were recently discovered), has found its "niche" in globalization, becoming a transshipment point for transporting cocaine from Colombia to Europe [https://www.cia.gov/ library]. Similar examples can be found in the immediate vicinity of the borders of the Russian Federation (Afghanistan and Tajikistan). In parallel with globalization, there are also processes of "global criminalization of the economy" [Projects..., 2011, p. 127].

Speaking about the prospects for the dynamics of energy consumption and the convergence of civilizations, the planetary spread of consumer society, I emphasize that the modern Western model of consumption is very wasteful in terms of spending material and energy resources, despite all the success in the development of energy-saving technologies. Consumption standards require frequent model changes. It is no coincidence that the modern consumer society is called the society of throwers. However, the current per capita energy consumption standards (10 thousand tons of fuel per year in the United States, about 5 thousand tons of fuel per year in other developed countries) [Akimov and Yakovlev, 2012, pp. 76-77] cannot be replicated in all countries today-there are not enough resources. "...if the whole world starts to live up to California's standards, then all the proven mineral reserves on Earth with existing technologies will last for three to five years." He also writes that Western civilization has faced serious problems, deep systemic contradictions. Individualism, the cult of consumption, the huge development of virtual reality, and living in the present-symbols of postmodern society - are becoming less relevant to today's realities and are losing their appeal. Perhaps (and this is increasingly being discussed in the West), a change in development models is needed [Projects..., 2011, p. 406]. This is quite consistent with what Akimov and Yakovlev write about.

Speaking about the increasing role of Eastern countries in the global economy (the scenario "Leadership moves to the East and South"), Akimov and Yakovlev cite the data of the US National Intelligence Council's 2009 report "The World after the Crisis" that China will become the world's second economy by 2025 [Mir..., 2009, p.13]. But this has already happened in 2011, when China ranked second after the United States in terms of GDP in exchange rates, ahead of Japan. With a growth rate of 7.75%, an annual inflation rate of 4% in China and a 3% appreciation in the value of the renminbi per year, and a growth rate of 2.5% and an inflation rate of 1.5% in the United States, China could overtake the United States and become the world's first economy in terms of GDP in exchange rates, according to the Economist already by 2019. [www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail...]. According to the OECD forecast referred to

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A. A. Akaev, I. E. Anufriev, and B. A. Akayeva estimate that by 2100, at constant 2000 prices, China's GDP will amount to $ 50.4 trillion, India's to $ 39.4 trillion, the United States ' to $ 36.6 trillion, Japan's to $ 8.9 trillion, and Germany's to $ 5.7 trillion. A. A. Akaev and his co-authors estimate that India will be ahead of the United States by 2050 [Projects..., 2011, p. 299].

But we may not necessarily be talking about the scenario of unconditional leadership of the East and South. The G2 option (cooperation between the United States and China) is also possible, or the option of rivalry between two, three or more world centers - China, the United States, and India, which does not turn into an open military confrontation (but rather a fairly stable system during the Cold War). Speaking of the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, one could add the scenario of a "Rentier Celebration". Even today, the national welfare funds of these countries make significant direct investments abroad, including in Western countries, which will allow them to receive significant dividends in the future and serve as a source of income. Speaking about the countries of Tropical Africa, it should be noted that today the scenario of cooperation is being implemented not so much with Latin America, but primarily with China (Deutsch, 2012). Although many Latin American countries do have civilizational similarities with African countries, Latin America has most successfully advanced along the path of hybridization, as shown in A. I. Kuprin's article on the Arab diaspora of Argentina (Kuprin, 2011, pp. 146-161).

The most disturbing and undesirable scenario is the fourth - "Struggle for resources". The diagrams presented by the authors give a clear picture of the imbalance in the distribution of energy resources, water resources and population between civilizations, which can cause conflicts.

The forecasts made by Akimov and Yakovlev are linear in nature, they are based on current trends and do not provide for sharp collapses and discontinuities. But the book deals with the problem of the crisis of the existing socio-economic system [Akimov, Yakovlev, 2012, p. 182].

The idea of changing epochs became more pronounced after the global financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008 (Tsvetkova, 2010). French authors M. Pigasse and J. Finkelstein write in their book "The World after an Unprecedented Crisis"::

"It seems that we are simultaneously experiencing the end of four historical cycles of different duration. A cycle of four hundred years, during which the countries of the North, first Europe, then the United States dominated the world to the detriment of the countries of the South. A one-hundred-year cycle in which the United States became the first power, and then the only superpower in the world. A thirty-year cycle in which economic liberalization has gradually gained ground everywhere... A cycle of twenty years, during which debt has become the main engine of growth" [Pigasse and Finchelstein, 2009, p. 207].

The classic globalist Immanuel Wallerstein, a professor at Yale University in the United States, gave an interview to the newspaper Monde in December 2008 in connection with the global crisis under the loud title "Capitalism is nearing its end." I. Wallerstein believes that the crisis is the lowest point of the long wave according to N. Kondratiev. "At the same time, 2008 is the lowest point of long - term" historical" cycles according to F. Braudel". I. Wallerstein compares the crisis of 2008 with the crisis of feudalism in Western Europe in the XV-XVI centuries. He considers the 2008 crisis to be a manifestation of the systemic crisis of capitalism. "Capitalism is a system that has made it possible to produce, in an extraordinary and remarkable way, the maximum amount of goods and wealth. But it also caused a lot of losses - for the environment, for society". I. Wallerstein connects the crisis of modern capitalism with the emergence of new leaders in the world economy. It states:

"The successful catch-up economic development of East Asia, India, and Latin America presents a challenge for the" World Economy " created by the West, which cannot find an answer to it and no longer controls the accumulation process." "The dominant actors who are at the head of companies and Western states will make efforts to

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restore the balance, but it is very likely that they will not succeed. The most intelligent of them have already realized that some radically new system must be established, but it is still unknown what kind. We live in a very rare period when crisis and the inability of those in power leave room for everyone's free will." "In 30-40 years, a new system will emerge. I believe that it is equally possible to establish a system of exploitation that is even more rigid than capitalism, and to establish a model that is more egalitarian, based on the redistribution of goods" [Le capitalisme, 2008..., cit. by: Tsvetkova, 2010].

In the spirit of the Apocalypse, the famous Russian historian A. Fursov discusses the crisis in the XXI century. He writes about three types of crises: the crisis of late feudalism ("the crisis of the long XVI century"), the crisis of late Antiquity and the crisis of the Upper Paleolithic, the most terrible, the results of which were "a decrease in the population by 75-85%, social degradation, 150 centuries of the most severe struggle for survival." The systemic " global crisis into which capitalism is creeping bears the characteristics of all three of the above-mentioned crises "in one package", "this is a "matryoshka crisis", or, if you like, a domino crisis, where one type of crisis automatically pulls another, "including" the entire chain " [Projects... , 2011, pp. 123-124].

A. Fursov negatively assesses the prospects for the development of demographic processes. "The West in the XX century provoked a global demographic explosion on the periphery. And most of this huge sociobiomass that has grown up is not just cut off from the "public pie", but generally pushed out of social life." "The bulk of the population of the South and the southern segment of the North are young people" (molodezhny buhor). But "as soon as the number of young people in society reaches 25-30%, there is an explosion of violence" [Projects..., 2011, pp. 125-126].

A. Fursov paints a terrible picture. He cites forecasts that in 2030-2040, the population of slums in the South will reach 2 billion people out of 8 billion of the world's population. "The slums will begin to storm first the more prosperous countries of the South itself, and then, sweeping away the buffer states-Europe, North America and, apparently, Russia." "Moreover, immigrants from the South in the North - a, according to the forecast, in 2020-2030. they will make up 30-40% of the population of the largest cities in the North, i.e. its underclass, and they are objective allies of new waves of migrants from the slum world " [Proekty..., 2011, p. 125]. V. A. Melyantsev also writes about the possibility of such cataclysms, the accumulation of instability, excessive conflict caused to a considerable extent by the aggravation of a number of economic, social, environmental and other problems; according to his much more moderate estimates, by 2050 "famine and drought will move 200 million migrants" [Melyantsev, 2013, pp. 35-36].

A. Fursov lists three explosions, three problems of the XXI century. They are embedded in the "matryoshka crisis", which "cannot be avoided - we are already in it" (!) [Projects..., 2011, p. 126]. The first explosion is related to the size of the population, it - "objectively-should remove demographic pressure on the planet's resources, on the biosphere", which can affect up to 90% of the population (7 billion out of 8 billion). "The second explosion is universal, global criminalization." The third explosion is connected... "with the fact that during periods of acute social crises, the social is muted and the role of what is called the biological component in human behavior sharply increases, pre-human forms of sociality and zoosociality come to the fore" [Proekty..., 2011, pp. 126-127].

"The great turning point of the XXI century", according to A. Fursov, is " a struggle for the preservation of the Russian world and Russianness in the post-turning world, since it seems that it is Russia that is being prepared for the role of the main theater of military operations (economic, social and information wars)" [Projects..., 2011, p.129]. Akimov and Yakovlev's diagrams on the population size and resources of various civilizations also suggest such thoughts.

However, Akimov and Yakovlev are concerned about demographic processes and the prospects for providing energy and production resources-

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It is also quite positive and constructive. They believe that the first scenario ("Convergence") requires special conscious measures for its implementation, management of the global system, the fourth ("Struggle for resources") can be prevented by measures implemented at the interstate level. "The first and fourth scenarios require measures to reform international and intercivilizational relations and modernize them" [Akimov and Yakovlev, 2012, p. 215]. It is also very important to note at the beginning of the work that " a forecast is not a prediction of what will happen, it is an analysis of what may happen." Such an "analysis should contribute to the development of a strategy that avoids the development of undesirable options and determines the ways to achieve the desired states, avoid disruptions and catastrophes" [Akimov, 2013, p. 6]. Let's hope that the alarming forecasts will be listened to.

The book by A.V. Akimov and A. I. Yakovlev can also be considered as an important foundation in the project of further, possibly collective research on strategic forecasting.

list of literature

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